Latin Americans skeptical of Bush

CARACAS, Venezuela President Bush can expect a warm welcome forhis plan for a free-trade area from Alaska to Argentina when he toursLatin America this week, but doubts have been voiced over his abilityto carry through the initiative.

Bush, who sets off today on a one-week tour of Brazil, Uruguay,Argentina, Chile and Venezuela, will promote his Enterprise for theAmericas plan, announced earlier this year, in an attempt to speedfree-market reforms sweeping Latin America.

The announcement of the initiative led to a rush by LatinAmerican nations to forge closer trade ties with each other amidcalls by leaders in the region for a renewed drive toward economicintegration.

There is a widespread belief in the region that in a worldincreasingly dominated by North American, European and Asian tradingblocs, Latin America has no choice but to integrate.

Argentine Foreign Minister Domingo Cavallo articulated this viewin a recent speech to a farming association. "Three major tradingblocs seem to be emerging - the European Community, led by thereunified Germany; Japan and Southeast Asia, and North America,"Cavallo said.

"Only through integration will we be able to dialogue with thoseeconomic giants," he said.

Prompted by the Bush initiative, Argentina made a deal withBrazil, Paraguay and Uruguay to set up a free trade area in theregion's southern cone, which is expected to be operating in fiveyears.

Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico also are seeking to ease traderestrictions.

But while Latin American leaders have not hesitated to hail theBush initiative as a breakthrough in relations between the UnitedStates and Latin America - traditionally fraught by mistrust - theyhave lingering doubts over his ability to sell the plan to Congess.

"What worries us is, firstly, the slowness of the process,"Chilean Finance Minister Alejandro Foxley said recently.

"And secondly, the fact that despite President Bush'sannouncement, the U.S. Congress has not yet shown that it is in tunewith the philosophy behind the Bush initiative, which is a free-tradephilosophy," Foxley said. Latin American officials fear that thereis a protectionist mood in Congress.

Similar worries are being expressed in Venezuela.

"There is a great deal of hope here, but people are wonderingwhether the president can deliver the U.S. Congress and whetherattention toward Latin America will persist," a Caracas-baseddiplomat said.

Another fear is that once Washington has sewn up trade dealswith Mexico and Brazil, the two dominant economic powers in LatinAmerica, interest in granting major trade concessions to other Latinnations will wither.

"People are asking, `What capacity does Latin America have forreacting to this?' " the diplomat said. "Mexico can take care ofitself and so can Brazil, but what about the rest of us?"

With world trade talks in danger of collapse over the issue ofEuropean farm subsidies, Latin American nations feel particularlyvulnerable to a breakdown in a multilateral trading system that couldlead to isolated regional blocs emerging.

Bush said during a visit to Mexico last week to promote a freetrade pact that while he favored such deals in the WesternHemisphere, he did not want to see North America and Europe formingexclusive trading entities.

"While we endorse expanded trade, we reject the idea of a worlddivided into two isolated trading blocs," Bush said.